Uncertainty? Certainly.

Ali Mourtada
3 min readMay 12, 2020

“Imagination should never be a reaction to fear. It should be a provocation for creativity.” — by this author.

Disaster, Poverty, Famine, War, Economic Security or Pandemics. Every generation has its allocation of adversity, in this wheel of misfortune. As tenants of a particular era, we are quick to promote the intensity of our particular strife, in relation to that of other generations. We search for the particulars of our struggle, with the aim of justifying our beliefs that the hardships facing us are as unique as they are unprecedented. The truth of the matter is much simpler. While struggles may differ cosmetically, the active ingredient is fundamental to all: Uncertainty.

Uncertainty, being a first derivative of fear, is closely tied into the primal human condition. This is what lends uncertainty its overarching power over us, in the form of anxiety.

When faced with an ongoing crisis, uncertainty is rendered as a consequence of incomplete information. An unfolding crisis is highly volatile and notoriously surrounded by unknowns and missing data. As semi-rational beings, our desire for achieving certainty encourages us to fill in the gaps with assumptions. Under the influence of anxiety, our minds resort to projecting worst case scenarios, in-line with the evolutionary pretext of “better safe than sorry”. In turn, these fear driven assumptions further exacerbate the anxiety, disguising improbable imagination as realistic conjecture. This ironic and irrational mechanism is at the core of a self-sustaining viscous cycle of fear.

Exclusively, anxiety is a profound consequence. Unfortunately, it is not the only one. Anxiety marshals the entire fear mechanism, which further cascades into an array of negative consequences. A mind hijacked with fear elevates our bias towards negativity, lowers our resilience to thought distortion, and propagates into the collective psyche of society. And here is where the real problem comes into play.

A society overcome with fear will only accept behavior and substance of a fearful nature. This is effectively how fear justifies its “Raison d’être”, on a subconscious level. And so, the unravelling begins: Fear-Mongery is now a profitable trade. Media for the masses overcomes science and research. The merit of a circulating article is measured by the fear it can instill. Herds of people flock to align with the tides, because they are being herded. Ultimately, fear becomes the operational basis of all narrative and subsequent action. Prudence and caution are replaced with exaggeration and aggression. The new-normal is polarized towards paranoia and is hostile towards non-conforming opinion. The voice of reason attempts to make a last stand while it is still only vilified. Eventually, it becomes morally criminalized. Society is reduced to being at the mercy of the most primitive faculties of mind, as the brains’ more advanced capabilities become paralyzed.

This is not to take away from the very real hardships that adversity produces, nor from the caution that is warranted in times of crisis — the consequences of which undoubtedly cause suffering and agony among many. This is simply to shed light on the darkest corners of our own thoughts, in hope of demarcating the lines that separate fact from fiction. To fear an unwanted outcome is to pay twice: First in imagination and second in reality. While reality is mandated, the content of imagination is optional. It is a double-edged sword that can further entrench us within our fears, or it can mediate creativity and problem solving. Paradoxically, the danger that any crisis presents specifically requires positively-driven, rationally-guided minds in order to mitigate, circumnavigate, and overcome.

For these reasons, it becomes imperative in times of crisis to re-consider our relationship with uncertainty. It should be embraced as a cornerstone of our miraculous existence, endemic to the human condition. As individuals, we all have an integral part to play in the defense of rationality. In the end, rational behavior should be the single point of certainty, that ensures collective success against real and imagined threats.

“The premise of needing certainty is construct of fear, which in itself, is an illusion .” — by this author.

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Ali Mourtada

Founder of an SME. Owner of an Inspired Imagination. Skilled in Thought-Mongery. Driven by Curiosity. Everything is for Discussion.